Johnny Davis scouting report: Evaluating the Wizards pick at No. 10

The Wizards, after speculation that they’d engineer a trade either to move up in the NBA Draft or to land a veteran point guard, stood pat at No. 10 on Thursday night. They selected Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis, who worked out in Washington in early June.

Here’s a closer look at what the Wizards are getting in Davis.

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Strengths

Arguably the biggest breakout player of 2022 in college basketball. Won Wisconsin Mr. Basketball as a senior in high school before committing to Wisconsin. Had a good freshman season as a rotation player but truly broke out as a star as a sophomore. Won Big Ten Player of the Year while being responsible for everything Wisconsin did offensively. Was a consensus first-team All-American and first-team All-Big Ten player. He won the Lute Olson Award as the best player in the country and won the Jerry West Award as the best shooting guard in America.

Has good enough size to play both wing spots. Came in at 6-foot-5 ¾ at the combine with a near 6-foot-9 wingspan and an 8-foot-7 standing reach. Physical mindset and plays with a toughness that imbues Davis’ entire game. Constantly looking to play through contact. The critical skill here is his shot making. Makes tough shots. Averaged 20 points per game as largely a one-man show at Wisconsin this past year, being forced to do it on his own for a large portion of those attempts. Also has real athleticism. Has very sneaky vertical pop off one foot. Not the most explosive guy in the world but has some twitch where he gets off the ground quickly. Put down a few very impressive dunks this past season in half-court settings in crowds. Good quickness and speed.

Strong and fearless as a driver. Has good footwork not only for avoiding defenders but also being able to maintain his balance through getting hit. Love his ability to finish below the rim. Has great touch. Knows how to shield off defenders using his frame. Has an outstanding Euro step that he’s able to maintain strong balance on while extending and stretching out. Creates space by going directly into the chest of bigs and creating that bit of separation, then finishing over or around them. Made 57 percent of his shots at the basket in half-court settings this past season, a well-above-average number for a guard — especially one responsible for creating so many of his attempts. Really terrific body control. Can hang in the air a bit and change the angle on rim protectors.

Balance is the key word with Davis throughout the rest of his offensive game, too. He’s a very patient player who is constantly probing. As a scorer, the key skill is his midrange pull-up game. Really successful at getting to that shot. Loves that area right above the elbows at 17 feet. Hit shots between 17 feet and the 3-point line at a 45.6 percent clip, a number very strong for a player with this kind of volume. Really elevates into the jumper to get clean looks, which helps make up for his lack of shiftiness and ability to separate off the bounce without a ball screen. Posts mismatches into turnaround jumpers. Also showcased some real propensity to hit stepbacks to his left, as well as shots off right-hand hang dribbles all the way back to the college 3-point line. I also buy him as a reasonable shooter off the catch. Hit 39 percent of his jumpers off the catch this past season, most of which were from 3. But it’s more of a set shot with solid, simple mechanics and good touch that we’ll discuss some concerns with below.

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Love him defensively, particularly on the ball. Fights hard and uses that motor. Always a threat in recovery. Really swallows guys up. Uses his quickness to slide over and beat you to the spot, then uses his chest and doesn’t allow you to go through him. Fights to recover. Get off the ground more quickly than people expect to contest and even block occasional shots. Think he projects to be very effective on the ball in both switch and drop schemes with ball screens. Has size and strength to deal with guys one through three as a switch guy, plus shouldn’t get crushed against all but the best guys with real size. Won’t be a target. In drop settings, he does a good job of fighting through screens, getting skinny and contesting from behind. A real battler, and on top of it, he finishes possessions with defensive rebounds that allow him to grab and go on the break. Averaged a ton of defensive rebounds through sheer competitiveness. — Sam Vecenie

Weaknesses

I worry a bit about his overall scoring package because he doesn’t handle the ball exceptionally creatively. Doesn’t turn it over but doesn’t have a ton of juice. Plays at a good pace, but I think he doesn’t go slow-to-fast with lightning speed. Not a crazy amount of change-of-direction stuff. Plays off two feet without a ton of misdirection. Often ends up trying to bully his way into open shots right now using a shoulder. Given how important the midrange game is to his scoring package, there is a real worry he could struggle to generate higher-percentage shots from that area at a high level.

A ton of his shots at the college level ended up contested, which is why his shooting percentages were a bit lower than you’d hope. Made 33 percent of his overall half-court jumpers. Part of this had to do with his role in Wisconsin’s offense, as he was responsible for so much shot-creation burden. Took a lot of very difficult shots. But in the NBA, teams won’t want him taking a ton of the looks he was responsible for taking. Think he could stand to improve his shot prep a bit — especially to become more of a threat off movement — as he can get a bit flat-footed. Went through streaky stretches even prior to the ankle injury that sapped some of his pop in terms of elevation.

Was a significant ball-stopper at the college level in a way that won’t fly in the NBA. Negative assist-to-turnover ratio and a lot of overdribbling, again, in part because of his role. Has a bit of Malcolm Brogdon in him where he’ll stop to survey or jab step before doing anything. Would be better if he moved the ball along a bit more quickly or attacked closeouts more decisively. Again, his shot prep here is a problem. Would help him to be more ready upon immediately catching. Also, don’t love his vision. Doesn’t make complicated, high-level reads regularly. Very few live-dribble reads. Will need to start making these smart kickout passes. Didn’t play off the defensive attention he was getting often enough for his teammates.

Defensively, he could stand to clean up some of his mechanics. His closeouts can get a bit needlessly aggressive, pushing him out of position and allowing drives. Jumps into them a bit and gets off his feet. Often feels like he’s trying to be disruptive but can overdo it at the expense of solid team rotational play. This is fixable, and you’d rather have a guy who is this competitive, but it might take a year. — Vecenie

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The fit in Washington

Davis figures to add depth on the wing behind starting shooting guard Bradley Beal and starting small forward Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — assuming, that is, that Beal re-signs with the team in free agency and Caldwell-Pope isn’t traded in the weeks ahead.

Davis most likely will compete with second-year wing Corey Kispert, last year’s No. 15 pick, for playing time. He could potentially eat into the minutes that combo forwards Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura — Washington’s first-round picks in 2020 and 2019, respectively — sometimes receive at small forward. — Josh Robbins

Summary

The idea with Davis is that he is a terrific competitor who can play on both ends of the court. He has size, he’s good enough athletically, and he was extremely productive. It’s hard to score 20 points per game and be the Big Ten Player of the Year. On top of that, I do think the ankle injury late in the year sapped some of his athleticism, leading to a real downturn in his shooting percentages. He struggled to elevate into his shot and create even a modicum of separation. I think it worked to display how small the margin for error on his game is. Davis needs to be able to hit 3s consistently or add a bit more juice off the bounce to separate. He has enough touch to where you can buy the former, but I worry a bit about the latter. I totally buy Davis as a top-20 type of prospect who becomes a solid rotation player because of his toughness. But I worry about his upside in terms of star quality because of his lack of shiftiness. If a trainer can string some further explosiveness out of the quick-twitch Davis seems to have athletically, he could be worth a lottery pick and turn into a good starting-quality two guard. But without it, I worry a bit about whether he can be efficient enough as a secondary creator given his currently limited passing ability. If I’m going to bet on someone to improve, though, it’s someone with this competitiveness, toughness and track record of getting better. — Vecenie

(Photo: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)

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