How could Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox's returns affect Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid?

Given Ertz’ age and the injury being to his quad, he’ll return with a High Injury Risk. His Optimal Recovery Time is 11 days from the time of writing, so he should be back once his stint on IR is up. Knox, on the other hand, has 22 days left until he reaches Optimal Recovery, so we expect he’ll be out a little longer. His Injury Risk will be Elevated when he returns.

Despite the difference in Optimal Recovery Times and Injury Risk, both guys do look to have been adequately replaced by their respective teams, so their production is likely to take a hit.

Trey McBride has been a great replacement for Ertz, racking up 131 yards in Kyler Murray’s first game back. Meanwhile, Kincaid and Josh Allen have started to develop some solid chemistry and he’s looking like the better second option in that offense behind Stefon Diggs.

Overall, Ertz is the more likely to see a steep drop off. Knox still has plenty of production potential, and his injury shouldn’t limit him too much, but Buffalo used a first round pick on Kincaid for a reason and it looks like they’re realizing that.

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